Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-02-13 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Calgary Flames (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 48.3%

CGY: 51.7%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.16

CGY: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 48%

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Mads Sogaard	37	34	3	91.9%	3.28	0	0.28
CGY	J. Markstrom	25	21	4	84.0%	2.72	0	-1.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • OTT at home vs CGY: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	CGY 1 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-30	OTT 4 - 3 CGY	OTT	OTT
2024-12-19	CGY 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-11-25	OTT 4 - 3 CGY	OTT	OTT
2024-01-09	CGY 6 - 3 OTT	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	OTT	8	0.74
1	CGY	20	1.25
2	OTT	12	0.91
2	CGY	20	1.10
3	OTT	13	0.84
3	CGY	14	0.55
4	OTT	2	0.23
4	CGY	3	0.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0