Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2023-02-14 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 60.1%

OTT: 39.9%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.95

OTT: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

OTT

K. Mandolese

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	37	33	4	89.2%	4.95	3	0.95
OTT	K. Mandolese	49	47	2	95.9%	4.46	0	2.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • NYI at home vs OTT: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	NYI 0 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-03-19	OTT 3 - 2 NYI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-18	OTT 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	OTT
2025-01-14	NYI 0 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-12-08	OTT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	13	0	0.61
1	OTT	13	0	0.97
2	NYI	26	0	1.80
2	OTT	21	1	1.73
3	NYI	22	0	1.22
3	OTT	10	0	0.35
4	NYI	7	0	0.67
4	OTT	0	0	0.00
5	NYI	2	0	0.14
5	OTT	3	2	1.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9