Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-02-14 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Boston Bruins (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 64.8%

BOS: 35.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.24

BOS: 2.55

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 51%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	37	34	3	91.9%	2.02	1	-0.98
BOS	L. Ullmark	31	29	2	93.5%	2.55	0	0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs BOS: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	BOS 6 - 3 DAL	BOS	DAL
2026-01-20	DAL 6 - 2 BOS	DAL	DAL
2024-11-14	DAL 7 - 2 BOS	DAL	DAL
2024-10-24	BOS 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-02-19	BOS 4 - 3 DAL	BOS	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	9	0	0.27
1	BOS	20	1	1.11
2	DAL	16	0	1.50
2	BOS	11	0	0.40
3	DAL	12	0	0.36
3	BOS	14	0	0.46
4	DAL	7	0	0.42
4	BOS	1	0	0.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 2.5