Pittsburgh Penguins at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2023-02-14 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

SJS: 48.9%

PIT: 51.1%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.99

PIT: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 54%

SJS

A. Dell

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	A. Dell	28	25	3	89.3%	4.42	2	1.42
PIT	C. DeSmith	39	38	1	97.4%	3.31	2	2.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • SJS at home vs PIT: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	PIT 5 - 6 SJS	SJS	PIT
2025-10-18	SJS 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-27	SJS 2 - 1 PIT	SJS	PIT
2024-11-16	PIT 4 - 3 SJS	PIT	PIT
2024-03-14	PIT 6 - 3 SJS	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	12	0	0.87
1	PIT	14	0	0.79
2	SJS	19	2	1.59
2	PIT	17	0	1.36
3	SJS	14	0	0.85
3	PIT	9	2	2.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 1 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2