Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-02-15 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

TOR: 80.0%

CHI: 20.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 4.46

CHI: 2.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

TOR

I. Samsonov

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	29	27	2	93.1%	1.34	0	-0.66
CHI	Petr Mrazek	42	37	5	88.1%	5.12	5	0.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs CHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	TOR 3 - 2 CHI	TOR	TOR
2025-11-15	CHI 3 - 2 TOR	CHI	TOR
2025-02-23	CHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-02	TOR 4 - 1 CHI	TOR	TOR
2023-11-24	CHI 4 - 3 TOR	CHI	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	21	2	2.04
1	CHI	15	0	0.52
2	TOR	24	2	1.83
2	CHI	8	0	0.48
3	TOR	11	1	1.25
3	CHI	11	0	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 80.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 4.5 - 2.3