Tampa Bay Lightning at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2023-02-15 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 1 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning (SO)

Win Probability

ARI: 57.4%

TBL: 42.6%

Expected Goals

ARI: 3.42

TBL: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

ARI

C. Ingram - 24-24-0 | 0.907 SV% | 3.00 GAA

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	C. Ingram	50	49	1	98.0%	4.95	1	3.95
TBL	B. Elliott	29	27	2	93.1%	2.90	0	0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • ARI at home vs TBL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-01-25	TBL 6 - 3 ARI	TBL	TBL
2023-11-28	ARI 3 - 1 TBL	ARI	ARI
2023-02-15	ARI 1 - 0 TBL	ARI	ARI
2022-12-31	TBL 5 - 3 ARI	TBL	TBL
2022-02-11	ARI 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	ARI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	13	0	0.76
1	TBL	28	0	1.66
2	ARI	9	0	0.71
2	TBL	22	0	1.64
3	ARI	16	0	1.12
3	TBL	6	0	0.38
4	ARI	1	0	0.11
4	TBL	11	1	1.06
5	ARI	3	0	0.19
5	TBL	3	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 1 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.4 - 3.3