Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2023-02-15 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 5 Detroit Red Wings (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 62.9%

DET: 37.1%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.59

DET: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

EDM

Jack Campbell - 1-4-0 | 0.873 SV% | 4.50 GAA

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Jack Campbell	26	20	6	76.9%	3.69	2	-2.31
DET	Ville Husso	49	44	5	89.8%	6.07	5	1.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • EDM at home vs DET: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	EDM 4 - 1 DET	EDM	EDM
2025-10-19	DET 4 - 2 EDM	DET	DET
2025-01-30	EDM 2 - 3 DET	DET	EDM
2024-10-27	DET 2 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-02-13	EDM 8 - 4 DET	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	16	1	0.86
1	DET	9	0	0.61
2	EDM	22	2	2.00
2	DET	8	0	0.43
3	EDM	23	1	1.71
3	DET	9	0	0.44
4	EDM	4	0	0.31
4	DET	2	0	0.23
5	EDM	5	1	1.18
5	DET	5	2	1.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0