Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-02-16 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (72% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 72.2%

DET: 27.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.21

DET: 2.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 49%

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

DET

M. Hellberg

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dan Vladar	24	19	5	79.2%	2.35	0	-2.65
DET	M. Hellberg	35	33	2	94.3%	4.00	0	2.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 30% • CGY at home vs DET: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DET 5 - 2 CGY	DET	DET
2025-12-10	CGY 3 - 4 DET	DET	CGY
2025-02-01	CGY 1 - 3 DET	DET	CGY
2024-11-27	DET 2 - 1 CGY	DET	DET
2024-02-17	CGY 0 - 5 DET	DET	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	CGY	14	0.82
1	DET	8	0.63
2	CGY	19	1.30
2	DET	17	1.41
3	CGY	24	1.87
3	DET	6	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 72.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.2 - 2.1