San Jose Sharks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-02-16 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

VGK: 52.4%

SJS: 47.6%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.12

SJS: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

SJS

K. Kahkonen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	26	25	1	96.2%	2.35	2	1.35
SJS	K. Kahkonen	38	36	2	94.7%	4.40	3	2.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • VGK at home vs SJS: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-11	SJS 2 - 7 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-12-23	VGK 7 - 2 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-11-29	VGK 4 - 3 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-10-09	SJS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-07	SJS 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	19	0	1.40
1	SJS	5	0	0.32
2	VGK	15	1	1.06
2	SJS	15	2	1.26
3	VGK	24	2	1.94
3	SJS	16	0	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0