Chicago Blackhawks at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-02-17 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 64.7%

CHI: 35.3%

Expected Goals

OTT: 4.27

CHI: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 50%

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Mads Sogaard	32	28	4	87.5%	2.93	0	-1.07
CHI	Petr Mrazek	31	28	3	90.3%	3.07	1	0.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs CHI: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-20	OTT 6 - 4 CHI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-28	CHI 7 - 3 OTT	CHI	CHI
2025-04-15	OTT 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	OTT
2025-03-05	CHI 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-03-28	OTT 2 - 0 CHI	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	1	0.82
1	CHI	16	0	1.13
2	OTT	14	0	0.98
2	CHI	8	0	0.36
3	OTT	8	0	0.84
3	CHI	16	0	1.20
4	OTT	4	0	0.43
4	CHI	2	0	0.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 4.3 - 2.8