Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2023-02-17 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

NYI: 51.9%

PIT: 48.1%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.80

PIT: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 50%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	44	40	4	90.9%	3.73	3	-0.27
PIT	C. DeSmith	28	23	5	82.1%	2.47	0	-2.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • NYI at home vs PIT: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	9	0	0.82
1	PIT	27	1	1.63
2	NYI	13	0	1.12
2	PIT	24	2	1.77
3	NYI	11	0	0.52
3	PIT	12	0	0.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.8 - 3.0