New Jersey Devils at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-02-18 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 5 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

PIT: 46.8%

NJD: 53.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.07

NJD: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 56%

PIT

D. Tokarski

NJD

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	D. Tokarski	43	38	5	88.4%	4.96	4	-0.04
NJD	V. Vanecek	31	29	2	93.5%	2.34	0	0.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • PIT at home vs NJD: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NJD 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	NJD
2026-02-26	PIT 4 - 1 NJD	PIT	PIT
2026-01-08	PIT 4 - 1 NJD	PIT	PIT
2025-11-08	NJD 2 - 1 PIT	NJD	NJD
2025-04-11	NJD 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	17	0	1.03
1	NJD	18	1	1.29
2	PIT	13	0	0.50
2	NJD	20	0	1.38
3	PIT	11	0	0.81
3	NJD	16	3	2.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 5 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2