Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-02-18 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

TOR: 62.5%

MTL: 37.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.93

MTL: 2.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	30	29	1	96.7%	1.98	0	0.98
MTL	J. Allen	41	36	5	87.8%	5.26	5	0.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • TOR at home vs MTL: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	TOR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	21	3	2.49
1	MTL	18	0	0.61
2	TOR	17	0	1.53
2	MTL	10	0	0.75
3	TOR	12	2	1.24
3	MTL	12	0	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.9 - 2.1