New York Rangers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-02-18 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 New York Rangers (OT)

Win Probability

CGY: 72.3%

NYR: 27.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.40

NYR: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

CGY

J. Markstrom

NYR

J. Halak

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	20	18	2	90.0%	2.37	0	0.37
NYR	J. Halak	32	29	3	90.6%	3.34	1	0.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CGY at home vs NYR: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	NYR 4 - 0 CGY	NYR	NYR
2025-10-26	CGY 5 - 1 NYR	CGY	CGY
2025-03-18	NYR 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	NYR
2024-11-21	CGY 3 - 2 NYR	CGY	CGY
2024-02-12	NYR 2 - 0 CGY	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	19	0	0.99
1	NYR	9	0	0.76
2	CGY	16	0	1.18
2	NYR	12	0	0.99
3	CGY	13	1	1.06
3	NYR	5	0	0.44
4	CGY	1	0	0.11
4	NYR	1	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8