St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-02-19 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 7 - 2 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

OTT: 66.2%

STL: 33.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.32

STL: 2.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 50%

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

STL

T. Greiss

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Mads Sogaard	32	30	2	93.8%	2.55	1	0.55
STL	T. Greiss	34	27	7	79.4%	3.79	1	-3.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • OTT at home vs STL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-06	OTT 1 - 2 STL	STL	OTT
2025-11-28	STL 4 - 3 OTT	STL	STL
2025-01-03	STL 4 - 0 OTT	STL	STL
2024-10-29	OTT 8 - 1 STL	OTT	OTT
2024-03-21	OTT 2 - 5 STL	STL	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	12	0	1.17
1	STL	16	0	1.07
2	OTT	20	0	1.60
2	STL	13	1	0.80
3	OTT	10	1	1.01
3	STL	13	0	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 7 - 2 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.3 - 2.6