Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2023-02-19 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 6 - 5 Edmonton Oilers (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 44.3%

EDM: 55.7%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.22

EDM: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

EDM

Jack Campbell - 1-4-0 | 0.873 SV% | 4.50 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	40	35	5	87.5%	3.80	4	-1.20
EDM	Jack Campbell	42	36	6	85.7%	2.77	1	-3.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • COL at home vs EDM: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	EDM 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-10	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL
2025-11-08	EDM 1 - 9 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-07	EDM 4 - 5 COL	COL	EDM
2025-01-16	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	16	0	0.97
1	EDM	14	0	0.69
2	COL	11	1	0.74
2	EDM	18	3	1.45
3	COL	12	0	0.46
3	EDM	13	1	1.27
4	COL	8	0	0.61
4	EDM	4	0	0.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 6 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2