Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions
2023-02-20 • TD Garden
Boston Bruins 3 - 1 Ottawa Senators
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BOS: 67.8%
OTT: 32.2%
Expected Goals
BOS: 3.29
OTT: 2.71
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 67%
Over 6.5: 49%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BOS
L. Ullmark
OTT
K. Mandolese
| Stat | BOS | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | L. Ullmark | 31 | 30 | 1 | 96.8% | 1.60 | 0 | 0.60 |
| OTT | K. Mandolese | 32 | 29 | 3 | 90.6% | 3.08 | 1 | 0.08 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • BOS at home vs OTT: 6-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | BOS 2 - 6 OTT | OTT | BOS |
| 2025-11-13 | OTT 5 - 3 BOS | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-11-06 | BOS 3 - 2 OTT | BOS | OTT |
| 2025-10-27 | OTT 7 - 2 BOS | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-03-13 | OTT 6 - 3 BOS | OTT | OTT |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BOS | 17 | 0 | 1.00 |
| 1 | OTT | 14 | 0 | 0.89 |
| 2 | BOS | 17 | 1 | 1.04 |
| 2 | OTT | 10 | 0 | 0.44 |
| 3 | BOS | 10 | 0 | 1.03 |
| 3 | OTT | 10 | 0 | 0.27 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 67.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Boston Bruins 3 - 1 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.3 - 2.7
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