Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-02-20 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 65.0%

PHI: 35.0%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.54

PHI: 2.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

CGY

J. Markstrom

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	22	18	4	81.8%	2.35	1	-1.65
PHI	Samuel Ersson	35	32	3	91.4%	4.48	3	1.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CGY at home vs PHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	CGY 5 - 1 PHI	CGY	CGY
2025-11-02	PHI 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PHI
2025-03-04	PHI 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	PHI
2024-10-12	CGY 6 - 3 PHI	CGY	CGY
2024-01-06	PHI 3 - 2 CGY	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	19	2	1.84
1	PHI	11	0	0.60
2	CGY	18	1	1.45
2	PHI	13	1	1.18
3	CGY	16	0	1.19
3	PHI	5	0	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.5 - 2.6