New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-02-20 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 4 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 50.1%

NYI: 49.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.17

NYI: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 51%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	32	28	4	87.5%	3.44	2	-0.56
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	46	44	2	95.7%	3.76	1	1.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • PIT at home vs NYI: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	22	1	1.67
1	NYI	11	0	0.56
2	PIT	25	0	1.07
2	NYI	21	1	1.81
3	PIT	14	0	1.02
3	NYI	11	1	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1