Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-02-21 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 1 Anaheim Ducks

Win Probability

TBL: 74.1%

ANA: 25.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.72

ANA: 2.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 56%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	24	1	96.0%	3.04	1	2.04
ANA	Lukas Dostal	44	38	6	86.4%	5.51	3	-0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs ANA: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	ANA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-25	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-16	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-05	ANA 4 - 1 TBL	ANA	TBL
2024-03-24	ANA 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	ANA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	18	0	1.22
1	ANA	17	1	1.34
2	TBL	29	1	2.71
2	ANA	1	0	0.15
3	TBL	20	2	1.58
3	ANA	15	0	1.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 74.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 1 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.7 - 2.5