Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-02-21 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 58.7%

DET: 41.3%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.01

DET: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 51%

WSH

D. Kuemper

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	25	22	3	88.0%	3.51	2	0.51
DET	Ville Husso	27	26	1	96.3%	2.89	1	1.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • WSH at home vs DET: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	DET 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-21	DET 3 - 2 WSH	DET	DET
2025-12-20	WSH 2 - 5 DET	DET	DET
2025-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 DET	WSH	WSH
2025-03-07	WSH 5 - 2 DET	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	13	0	0.66
1	DET	17	0	1.06
2	WSH	9	0	0.55
2	DET	19	0	1.01
3	WSH	26	1	1.68
3	DET	8	2	1.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8