Montreal Canadiens at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2023-02-21 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 56.2%

MTL: 43.8%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.73

MTL: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

NJD

V. Vanecek

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	V. Vanecek	18	13	5	72.2%	2.62	4	-2.38
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	40	38	2	95.0%	3.75	4	1.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NJD at home vs MTL: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	MTL 0 - 3 NJD	NJD	NJD
2026-04-04	NJD 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	NJD
2025-11-06	NJD 4 - 3 MTL	NJD	NJD
2025-02-08	MTL 0 - 4 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-25	MTL 3 - 4 NJD	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	15	0	0.62
1	MTL	11	2	0.94
2	NJD	16	3	1.60
2	MTL	9	0	0.73
3	NJD	22	1	1.52
3	MTL	7	2	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0