Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-02-21 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

BUF: 44.6%

TOR: 55.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.05

TOR: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 52%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	29	23	6	79.3%	4.45	6	-1.55
TOR	I. Samsonov	32	29	3	90.6%	2.63	0	-0.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • BUF at home vs TOR: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	TOR
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	10	0	0.71
1	TOR	17	2	1.71
2	BUF	12	0	0.99
2	TOR	9	3	1.12
3	BUF	16	0	0.93
3	TOR	8	1	1.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2