Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions
2023-02-21 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 4 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
EDM: 66.6%
PHI: 33.4%
Expected Goals
EDM: 3.43
PHI: 2.57
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 72%
Over 6.5: 50%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
EDM
Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA
PHI
C. Hart
| Stat | EDM | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.896 | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.81 | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | Stuart Skinner | 26 | 24 | 2 | 92.3% | 2.04 | 1 | 0.04 |
| PHI | C. Hart | 27 | 23 | 4 | 85.2% | 3.69 | 4 | -0.31 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • EDM at home vs PHI: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | EDM 2 - 5 PHI | PHI | EDM |
| 2025-11-12 | PHI 1 - 2 EDM | EDM | PHI |
| 2025-02-22 | PHI 6 - 3 EDM | PHI | PHI |
| 2024-10-15 | EDM 4 - 3 PHI | EDM | EDM |
| 2024-01-02 | EDM 5 - 2 PHI | EDM | EDM |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EDM | 10 | 0 | 0.48 |
| 1 | PHI | 13 | 1 | 0.80 |
| 2 | EDM | 7 | 1 | 0.76 |
| 2 | PHI | 9 | 0 | 0.62 |
| 3 | EDM | 21 | 3 | 2.45 |
| 3 | PHI | 13 | 0 | 0.62 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 66.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 4 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.4 - 2.6
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