Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-02-22 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (74% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 74.3%

CHI: 25.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.10

CHI: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

CHI

J. Stauber

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	23	19	4	82.6%	2.78	2	-1.22
CHI	J. Stauber	32	29	3	90.6%	3.80	2	0.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs CHI: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	DAL 4 - 3 CHI	DAL	DAL
2026-01-01	CHI 4 - 3 DAL	CHI	CHI
2025-12-27	DAL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	DAL
2024-12-29	CHI 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-11-27	CHI 6 - 2 DAL	CHI	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	21	0	1.27
1	CHI	16	0	0.66
2	DAL	11	0	0.85
2	CHI	14	2	1.39
3	DAL	18	2	1.68
3	CHI	7	0	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 74.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.1 - 2.7