Calgary Flames at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2023-02-22 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 3 - 6 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

ARI: 46.9%

CGY: 53.1%

Expected Goals

ARI: 2.71

CGY: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 45%

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	K. Vejmelka	51	45	6	88.2%	4.43	2	-1.57
CGY	Dan Vladar	15	12	3	80.0%	3.14	1	0.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • ARI at home vs CGY: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-04-14	CGY 6 - 5 ARI	CGY	CGY
2024-01-16	CGY 3 - 2 ARI	CGY	ARI
2024-01-11	ARI 2 - 6 CGY	CGY	CGY
2023-03-14	ARI 4 - 3 CGY	ARI	CGY
2023-02-22	ARI 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	11	0	0.62
1	CGY	22	0	1.01
2	ARI	11	1	1.80
2	CGY	26	2	1.98
3	ARI	8	0	0.73
3	CGY	19	0	1.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 3 - 6 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.7 - 2.8