Anaheim Ducks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-02-23 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 70.9%

ANA: 29.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.37

ANA: 2.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 50%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	21	17	4	81.0%	2.62	3	-1.38
ANA	John Gibson	43	41	2	95.3%	3.76	0	1.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WSH at home vs ANA: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-05	WSH 7 - 4 ANA	WSH	WSH
2025-12-05	ANA 4 - 3 WSH	ANA	WSH
2025-03-11	ANA 4 - 7 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-01-14	WSH 3 - 0 ANA	WSH	WSH
2024-01-16	WSH 2 - 0 ANA	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	19	0	1.13
1	ANA	10	1	0.66
2	WSH	17	0	1.29
2	ANA	13	0	0.63
3	WSH	23	0	1.34
3	ANA	8	2	1.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.4 - 2.4