Edmonton Oilers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-02-23 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 7 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 52.1%

EDM: 47.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.41

EDM: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 54%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	44	37	7	84.1%	3.42	0	-3.58
EDM	Stuart Skinner	24	22	2	91.7%	2.16	0	0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • PIT at home vs EDM: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	EDM 2 - 6 PIT	PIT	EDM
2025-12-16	PIT 4 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-01-09	PIT 5 - 3 EDM	PIT	EDM
2024-10-25	EDM 4 - 0 PIT	EDM	EDM
2024-03-10	PIT 0 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	PIT	6	0.30
1	EDM	20	0.87
2	PIT	15	1.05
2	EDM	16	1.43
3	PIT	16	0.81
3	EDM	18	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 7 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.3