Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-02-23 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 Calgary Flames (OT)

Win Probability

VGK: 55.2%

CGY: 44.8%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.13

CGY: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

VGK

L. Brossoit

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Brossoit	28	25	3	89.3%	2.96	1	-0.04
CGY	Dan Vladar	29	25	4	86.2%	2.24	1	-1.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • VGK at home vs CGY: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	CGY
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	10	0	0.37
1	CGY	23	1	1.65
2	VGK	14	0	0.81
2	CGY	13	0	0.89
3	VGK	13	1	0.92
3	CGY	5	0	0.23
4	VGK	2	0	0.15
4	CGY	1	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2