Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-02-24 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Minnesota Wild (OT)

Win Probability

TOR: 68.8%

MIN: 31.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.23

MIN: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

TOR

I. Samsonov

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	25	24	1	96.0%	3.81	4	2.81
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	24	22	2	91.7%	2.39	1	0.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs MIN: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	MIN 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	MIN
2026-01-19	TOR 3 - 6 MIN	MIN	MIN
2025-01-29	TOR 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	TOR
2024-11-03	MIN 2 - 1 TOR	MIN	MIN
2023-11-19	MIN 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	0.73
1	MIN	12	1	1.56
2	TOR	15	0	0.78
2	MIN	16	2	1.37
3	TOR	6	0	0.53
3	MIN	11	1	0.88
4	TOR	2	1	0.35
4	MIN	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9