Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-02-24 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 59.0%

MTL: 41.0%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.47

MTL: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

PHI

C. Hart

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	31	26	5	83.9%	2.37	0	-2.63
MTL	J. Allen	26	24	2	92.3%	1.76	0	-0.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • PHI at home vs MTL: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	PHI 4 - 2 MTL	PHI	PHI
2025-12-16	MTL 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-11-04	MTL 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-04-05	MTL 3 - 2 PHI	MTL	PHI
2025-03-27	PHI 6 - 4 MTL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	PHI	7	0.31
1	MTL	21	1.25
2	PHI	10	0.47
2	MTL	7	0.32
3	PHI	15	0.98
3	MTL	15	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0