New York Rangers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-02-25 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 3 New York Rangers

Win Probability

WSH: 56.5%

NYR: 43.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.16

NYR: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 47%

WSH

D. Kuemper

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	26	23	3	88.5%	3.91	7	0.91
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	27	21	6	77.8%	3.61	1	-2.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • WSH at home vs NYR: 7-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	NYR 8 - 1 WSH	NYR	NYR
2025-12-31	WSH 6 - 3 NYR	WSH	WSH
2025-12-23	WSH 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	WSH
2025-10-12	NYR 0 - 1 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-03-05	NYR 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	10	0	0.76
1	NYR	12	1	0.84
2	WSH	21	1	2.34
2	NYR	14	0	0.59
3	WSH	11	0	0.51
3	NYR	19	6	2.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 6 - 3 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9