Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-02-25 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 52.4%

OTT: 47.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.13

OTT: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 47%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	22	17	5	77.3%	2.24	0	-2.76
OTT	Mads Sogaard	32	30	2	93.8%	2.25	1	0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • MTL at home vs OTT: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	MTL
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	10	1	0.54
1	OTT	9	0	0.35
2	MTL	16	0	0.86
2	OTT	13	0	0.69
3	MTL	14	0	0.85
3	OTT	17	0	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3