Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2023-02-25 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 0 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

DET: 42.5%

TBL: 57.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.72

TBL: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Ville Husso	18	15	3	83.3%	2.13	1	-0.87
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	45	45	0	100.0%	3.32	2	3.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DET at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	DET
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	13	0	0.54
1	TBL	11	0	0.55
2	DET	26	2	1.89
2	TBL	7	0	0.32
3	DET	16	0	0.90
3	TBL	9	1	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 0 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.7 - 3.3