Chicago Blackhawks at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2023-02-25 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 60.1%

CHI: 39.9%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.59

CHI: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

SJS

K. Kahkonen

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	K. Kahkonen	36	32	4	88.9%	4.57	3	0.57
CHI	Petr Mrazek	51	48	3	94.1%	4.68	3	1.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • SJS at home vs CHI: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	CHI 5 - 2 SJS	CHI	SJS
2026-04-06	SJS 3 - 2 CHI	SJS	SJS
2026-02-02	CHI 6 - 3 SJS	CHI	SJS
2025-03-13	SJS 4 - 2 CHI	SJS	SJS
2024-10-31	SJS 3 - 2 CHI	SJS	CHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	20	1	1.36
1	CHI	13	0	1.04
2	SJS	16	1	1.09
2	CHI	19	2	1.65
3	SJS	21	0	1.10
3	CHI	10	0	0.48
4	SJS	5	1	0.91
4	CHI	7	0	0.64
5	SJS	3	0	0.22
5	CHI	2	1	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.6 - 2.9