Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-02-26 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 7 - 4 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

BUF: 55.7%

WSH: 44.3%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.29

WSH: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 55%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	30	26	4	86.7%	2.78	1	-1.22
WSH	D. Kuemper	37	30	7	81.1%	4.74	5	-2.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • BUF at home vs WSH: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	WSH 6 - 2 BUF	WSH	WSH
2026-03-12	BUF 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	BUF
2025-11-01	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	BUF
2025-03-30	WSH 5 - 8 BUF	BUF	WSH
2025-01-06	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	2	1.20
1	WSH	17	0	1.40
2	BUF	20	1	1.96
2	WSH	12	0	0.82
3	BUF	15	2	1.58
3	WSH	14	1	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 7 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0