Boston Bruins at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2023-02-27 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 3 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 51.9%

BOS: 48.1%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.21

BOS: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	28	25	3	89.3%	3.18	1	0.18
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	24	22	2	91.7%	3.03	2	1.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • EDM at home vs BOS: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	EDM 2 - 6 BOS	BOS	BOS
2025-12-18	BOS 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-01-07	BOS 0 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-12-19	EDM 3 - 2 BOS	EDM	EDM
2024-03-05	BOS 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	10	0	0.70
1	BOS	12	0	0.94
2	EDM	14	1	1.20
2	BOS	13	0	1.02
3	EDM	12	1	1.13
3	BOS	12	1	1.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0