Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2023-02-27 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 0 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 49.5%

VGK: 50.5%

Expected Goals

COL: 2.96

VGK: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 40%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	31	31	0	100.0%	1.77	0	1.77
VGK	Adin Hill	34	31	3	91.2%	2.89	2	-0.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • COL at home vs VGK: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	15	1	0.80
1	VGK	13	0	0.58
2	COL	22	0	1.28
2	VGK	13	0	0.65
3	COL	8	1	0.81
3	VGK	13	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 0 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1