Chicago Blackhawks at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2023-02-27 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 48.1%

CHI: 51.9%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.91

CHI: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 7.0

Over 5.5: 74%

Over 6.5: 55%

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	26	24	2	92.3%	2.65	1	0.65
CHI	Petr Mrazek	33	29	4	87.9%	2.82	0	-1.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • ANA at home vs CHI: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-07	ANA 7 - 1 CHI	ANA	ANA
2025-11-30	CHI 5 - 3 ANA	CHI	ANA
2025-10-19	CHI 2 - 1 ANA	CHI	CHI
2025-03-01	ANA 3 - 6 CHI	CHI	ANA
2024-11-19	CHI 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	CHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	14	0	0.70
1	CHI	13	0	0.91
2	ANA	15	0	1.06
2	CHI	20	1	1.32
3	ANA	16	0	1.06
3	CHI	7	0	0.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1