Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-02-28 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 61.1%

CBJ: 38.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.92

CBJ: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 54%

BUF

C. Anderson

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	36	31	5	86.1%	3.49	4	-1.51
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	41	38	3	92.7%	3.85	1	0.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BUF at home vs CBJ: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	BUF 5 - 0 CBJ	BUF	CBJ
2026-01-03	CBJ 5 - 1 BUF	CBJ	BUF
2025-10-28	BUF 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-10	CBJ 3 - 2 BUF	CBJ	CBJ
2025-02-04	BUF 3 - 2 CBJ	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	20	0	1.02
1	CBJ	20	2	1.35
2	BUF	15	1	1.06
2	CBJ	18	1	1.32
3	BUF	23	0	1.77
3	CBJ	11	1	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.9 - 2.9