Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-02-28 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 6 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

OTT: 62.5%

DET: 37.5%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.22

DET: 2.38

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Mads Sogaard	17	16	1	94.1%	1.71	0	0.71
DET	Ville Husso	27	21	6	77.8%	3.27	1	-2.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • OTT at home vs DET: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	DET
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT
2025-03-27	DET 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	21	1	1.91
1	DET	7	0	0.29
2	OTT	7	0	0.53
2	DET	7	0	0.59
3	OTT	12	0	0.84
3	DET	13	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 6 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.2 - 2.4