New York Islanders at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2023-02-28 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 2 - 1 New York Islanders (SO)

Win Probability

MIN: 53.3%

NYI: 46.7%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.30

NYI: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 47%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	42	41	1	97.6%	3.71	2	2.71
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	34	32	2	94.1%	3.38	2	1.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • MIN at home vs NYI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	MIN 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MIN
2025-11-07	NYI 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	NYI
2025-04-04	NYI 3 - 1 MIN	NYI	NYI
2025-02-08	MIN 6 - 3 NYI	MIN	MIN
2024-01-15	MIN 5 - 0 NYI	MIN	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	16	0	0.88
1	NYI	20	0	1.24
2	MIN	11	1	0.89
2	NYI	10	0	0.48
3	MIN	11	0	0.43
3	NYI	15	2	1.12
4	MIN	2	0	0.15
4	NYI	5	0	0.59
5	MIN	3	1	1.03
5	NYI	3	0	0.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 2 - 1 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0