Boston Bruins at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-02-28 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Boston Bruins (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 71.2%

BOS: 28.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.23

BOS: 2.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dan Vladar	20	16	4	80.0%	2.44	4	-1.56
BOS	L. Ullmark	57	54	3	94.7%	5.68	2	2.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CGY at home vs BOS: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	BOS 4 - 1 CGY	BOS	BOS
2025-12-29	CGY 2 - 1 BOS	CGY	CGY
2024-12-17	CGY 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	BOS
2024-11-07	BOS 4 - 3 CGY	BOS	BOS
2024-02-22	CGY 3 - 2 BOS	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	25	1	1.77
1	BOS	7	1	0.47
2	CGY	25	1	2.39
2	BOS	6	1	0.54
3	CGY	14	0	0.95
3	BOS	9	0	0.58
4	CGY	6	0	0.56
4	BOS	5	2	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 2.2