Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2023-03-01 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

EDM: 53.5%

TOR: 46.5%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.29

TOR: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 55%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	28	26	2	92.9%	1.88	0	-0.12
TOR	I. Samsonov	32	27	5	84.4%	3.21	1	-1.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • EDM at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-03	EDM 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	EDM
2025-12-13	TOR 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-02-01	EDM 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	EDM
2024-11-16	TOR 4 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM
2024-03-23	TOR 6 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	18	0	1.09
1	TOR	14	0	0.83
2	EDM	14	0	1.03
2	TOR	9	0	0.33
3	EDM	10	1	1.09
3	TOR	14	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9