Arizona Coyotes at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-03-01 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Arizona Coyotes

Win Probability

DAL: 63.9%

ARI: 36.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.68

ARI: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 52%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

ARI

C. Ingram - 24-24-0 | 0.907 SV% | 3.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	20	18	2	90.0%	1.98	1	-0.02
ARI	C. Ingram	41	37	4	90.2%	5.53	5	1.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • DAL at home vs ARI: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-03-24	ARI 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-03-20	DAL 5 - 2 ARI	DAL	DAL
2023-11-14	DAL 4 - 3 ARI	DAL	DAL
2023-03-31	ARI 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	ARI
2023-03-01	DAL 4 - 2 ARI	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	0	0.82
1	ARI	9	1	0.75
2	DAL	23	1	2.27
2	ARI	11	0	0.66
3	DAL	19	4	2.44
3	ARI	9	0	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0