Carolina Hurricanes at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-03-01 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (63% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 37.1%

CAR: 62.9%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.60

CAR: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 46%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	26	24	2	92.3%	1.80	0	-0.20
CAR	Frederik Andersen	20	17	3	85.0%	3.14	2	0.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs CAR: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-06-14	VGK 0 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-06-11	CAR 4 - 2 VGK	CAR	CAR
2026-06-09	VGK 3 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-06-06	VGK 5 - 4 CAR	VGK	CAR
2026-06-04	CAR 4 - 3 VGK	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	10	0	0.68
1	CAR	14	0	0.75
2	VGK	14	0	0.65
2	CAR	10	0	0.30
3	VGK	7	2	1.81
3	CAR	20	0	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.6 - 3.4