Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-03-02 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 52.4%

PIT: 47.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.65

PIT: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 55%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	32	27	5	84.4%	2.85	0	-2.15
PIT	Tristan Jarry	31	27	4	87.1%	2.87	0	-1.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • TBL at home vs PIT: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	TBL 6 - 3 PIT	TBL	TBL
2026-01-13	PIT 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	PIT
2025-12-04	TBL 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	TBL
2025-03-25	TBL 6 - 1 PIT	TBL	TBL
2025-01-12	PIT 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	TBL	11	0.71
1	PIT	18	1.14
2	TBL	17	0.96
2	PIT	12	1.02
3	TBL	14	1.08
3	PIT	10	0.65
4	TBL	1	0.12
4	PIT	1	0.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1