Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2023-03-02 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 5 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 50.9%

DAL: 49.1%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.73

DAL: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 54%

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

DAL

M. Murray

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Petr Mrazek	36	31	5	86.1%	4.98	3	-0.02
DAL	M. Murray	21	19	2	90.5%	2.31	1	0.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CHI at home vs DAL: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	DAL 4 - 3 CHI	DAL	DAL
2026-01-01	CHI 4 - 3 DAL	CHI	CHI
2025-12-27	DAL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	DAL
2024-12-29	CHI 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-11-27	CHI 6 - 2 DAL	CHI	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	14	1	1.04
1	DAL	22	0	1.54
2	CHI	6	0	0.44
2	DAL	18	0	1.07
3	CHI	12	0	0.83
3	DAL	13	3	2.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 5 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.7 - 3.4