Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-03-02 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 60.3%

TOR: 39.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.56

TOR: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 7.0

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 53%

CGY

J. Markstrom

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	34	32	2	94.1%	3.81	3	1.81
TOR	Joseph Woll	26	25	1	96.2%	3.27	2	2.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CGY at home vs TOR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	CGY 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-10-28	TOR 4 - 3 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-03-17	TOR 6 - 2 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-02-04	CGY 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-01-18	CGY 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	11	1	1.11
1	TOR	14	1	1.25
2	CGY	17	1	1.60
2	TOR	18	1	1.35
3	CGY	10	0	0.55
3	TOR	13	1	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.6 - 3.2