St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2023-03-02 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 6 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 58.0%

STL: 42.0%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.34

STL: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

SJS

J. Reimer

STL

T. Greiss

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	J. Reimer	23	17	6	73.9%	3.42	2	-2.58
STL	T. Greiss	25	22	3	88.0%	2.81	2	-0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • SJS at home vs STL: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	SJS 5 - 4 STL	SJS	STL
2026-03-26	STL 2 - 1 SJS	STL	STL
2026-03-06	SJS 2 - 3 STL	STL	SJS
2024-12-12	STL 3 - 4 SJS	SJS	STL
2024-11-21	STL 3 - 2 SJS	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	15	0	1.05
1	STL	6	0	0.53
2	SJS	11	2	0.93
2	STL	16	1	1.47
3	SJS	12	0	0.84
3	STL	8	1	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 6 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0